Purdue and Alabama have continued to separate themselves on the wings of near-perfect records, strong strengths of schedule, and top-flight Quadrant 1 records. Kansas, though, with seven Q1 wins, is very much in the conversation for top-flight sleeding — especially given the Jayhawks, four losses all falling in the top Quadrant.
Houston is a tough one. Killer record, killer metrics, and Q1 ones to back it up. But a loss in Q3 and a loss in Q4 makes the Cougars No. 1 seed supremacy tougher and tougher to justify. Houston is one more loss, of any kind — or a quick winning spurt from any of the No. 2 seed listed here — away from falling off the top line.
Moving further down the seed list, let's talk about Baylor. The Bears' six Q1 are among the nation's best, and four of Baylor's five losses, come in the Q1A category. I have a tough time understanding why Baylor's average seed in the Bracket Matrix falls below Gonzaga's, but hey, differences in perspective are the spice of life... right? Something like that?
Mountain West teams need to stop losing in Quadrant 4.
I love Florida Atlantic.
Can we talk about Clemson? Clemson's résumé sucks. No team that's 17-4 in a power conference should have a NET outside the Top 50. The Tigers have two Quad 1 wins, so they're definitely a tournament team, but at KenPom No. 58 and NET No. 56 with two Quad 4 losses, Clemson is in the territory of last year's Wake Forest — a solid ACC team inflated by a great record who's two or three mediocre weeks away from the heavy bubble conversation.
Northwestern's another one whose Bracket Matrix listing I can't seem to wrap my head around. Of all the teams seeded No. 6 or worse in the Matrix, Northwestern is tied for the most Q1 wins, with four, and the most Q1A wins, with two. The Wildcats have a good record to boot at 14-5, have lost just once outside Q1 (a Q2 loss), and don't have any glaring metrics. I tried hard to reconcile my No. 8 listing for Northwestern with the Matrix's average of a No. 10 — I couldn't do it.
I covered Arizona State for three years. I refuse to believe the Sun Devils will ever not play in the First Four.
On that same note — this bubble is weeeeeeeird. It feels like the high-major leagues have two categories outside of their elites and their bottom-feeders:
Category 1: You're a good team who has proven itself against good competition and has the metrics to prove you're solid. But your record is garbage. Examples: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Penn State, Oklahoma
Category 2: You're a solid team who doesn't seem to lose. The metrics hate you, though. And you probably lost to a MEAC team in mid-November. Examples: Clemson, Missouri, NC State
Obviously, I'm over-generalizing. But come on - this bubble is plastered.
Anyway, here's the seed list. Happy almost Februrary. Go Florida Atlantic.