Happy National Marching Music Day! Let's talk basketball.
Here's a link to the seed list if you don't feel like reading a chaotic stream of early-March consciousness.
As the best week of the year looms — yes, that's Championship Week, if you weren't aware — there are a few categories that are most worth talking about. Let's dive right in:
THE TOP SEEDS
I haven't altered my group of No. 1 seeds in weeks — maybe months. Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue. Kansas, Houston, Alabama, Purdue. Purdue, Kansas, Alabama, Houston. It's become clockwork. I have it memorized.
What my seed list doesn't show, though, is how close I've been to shaking it up. UCLA could not be any closer to taking Purdue's No. 1 seed.
Why Purdue's No. 1 seed?
Alabama and Kansas simply have too good of a resume. Kansas has a disgusting volume of Q1 wins, Alabama has a pretty good amount too, and all the metrics are money. For Houston, this team hasn't relinquished the top spot in NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin in what feels like forever, and I don't see that changing barring a really bad loss in the AAC tourney.
So, that leaves Purdue. Is the Boilermakers' resume fantastic? Yes. But does it compare the most closely to UCLA's? Also, yes.
W-L record is basically the same. The two are one slot apart in NET. Average of all major metrics is pretty much a wash — Purdue averages to 3.0 in resume and 7.0 in quality, UCLA 7.5 in resume and 3.33 in quality. Purdue has a Q2 loss, UCLA doesn't. The difference? Purdue has beaten the best of the best — the Boilermakers have a stunning five wins in Q1A, compared to UCLA's two. That stat isn't going to change, so UCLA's only hope is that Purdue trips up in the Big Ten tournament, and probably does so before the championship game.
Here's something we need to keep in mind — the committee wants to see what you can do in the tournament, that's why quadrant records exist. If you're 5-2 in Q1A, there's real proof you can beat No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. If you're 12-1 combined in Q1 & Q2, like Houston is, there's real proof that you're probably going to walk through the first weekend. That's where Purdue beats UCLA.
If you look at the rest of the No. 2 seeds, Baylor, Texas and Arizona all have an argument to be considered for the top line if they win their conferences. With a strong W-L record of 25-5, Arizona probably has the best shot, but whoever wins the Big 12 is probably going to tack on three extra Q1 wins in the process, so it's hard to imagine turning away a 26-8 Baylor team that has 14 Q1 wins — unless, of course, Purdue runs the table as well.
THE BUBBLE
Right now, I'd argue that there are probably 14 spots up for grabs — 14 teams who are currently in my field that couldn't lose out and keep their at-large bid. Basically, anyone I currently have on my No. 9, No. 10, or No. 11 line probably still has some work to do to become an official lock. On the other hand, I highly doubt Missouri, Illinois, or Iowa, is falling all the way out of the field. So let's talk about those 14 spots.
Anyone on my No. 9 or No. 10 line right now probably just needs to be safe down the stretch and they'll get in. For example, Pittsburgh probably doesn't need to make a run in the ACC Tournament. But can they afford to lose their first game? Depends on the opponent — but probably not. The same goes for most of the teams in that 9-10 range.
There are a couple of teams, though, who we've been looking at as solid at-large bids for a while, who need to be really careful. I've got two in particular:
Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have been firmly in my field for weeks, but slowly trickling their way down the seed list. The Bracket Matrix still averages out to have Rutgers on the No. 9 line — I disagree. I think there's still some separation between Rutgers and the cut line, but four Q3 losses stick out like a sore thumb, and the resume metrics are rough. As it stands right now, four of my teams on the outside have a better strength of record than Rutgers.
Auburn. This team spent February quietly falling off of a cliff, and no one really talked about it. Auburn was a consensus No. 6 or No. 7 seed for most of February, but once the loss column hit that double-digit mark, question marks started flying. A closely-lost opportunity at Alabama isn't bad, but this is a resume that's begging for one more quality one.
Everyone else who's hovering on the bubble has been on the bubble for most of the year, so there's not much to talk about. But in a general sense, they've all gotta be careful and protect the resume they've earned to date.
THE OUTSIDERS
Man, there are some good teams with bad records this year.
For one, I have to feel really bad for Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. These teams have so many good wins — just like a West Virginia — but they don't have the blessing of a Top 25 NET. Teams who are only two games over .500 almost never make the field — twice all-time, actually — so both of these squads probably need at least two wins apiece in Kansas City to even be considered, but those wins would undoubtedly be good wins. Keep these two in the back of your head during championship week — they'll be fighting for their lives.
As for me, my eye is most closely on Penn State. There's not really a major flaw to this resume, it's just too painfully average — mediocre in basically every single metric. But look closer, and you'll find four Q1 wins and a record that compares to, say, Rutgers. You'll find significantly fewer bad losses, too. If this team can pick up a nice win in Chicago and push its win total up to, say 20, and push that NET into the Top 50 or so, they'll have a case.
Okay, remember when I mentioned the thing about the committee wanting to see how you'll fare against the field? Yeah, so North Carolina is 1-8 in Q1. What does that tell me? There's, theoretically, an 11 percent chance the Heels would get past, say, the second round, if not a No. 6 vs. No. 11 game in the first round. I don't know, man. UNC's metrics are solid and they don't have a bad loss, so if they play their cards right in Greensboro, they'll have a shot. But history has generally favored the Wisconsin type, whose bad NET is erased by killer Q1 (6-7) and Q2 (5-5) records. That's a team who has proven it can reach the Sweet 16.
I could go on for hours on other teams, but that's the big stuff. I'll leave you with a couple of my own hot takes:
• UConn is going to win the Big East, we're going to see them have eight-or-more Q1 wins to match top five quality metrics, and the Huskies will wrap up a No. 2 seed.
• Auburn is going to get bounced in the opening rounds of the SEC Tournament and spend the whole weekend getting leapfrogged out of the field.
• Penn State will reach the Big Ten semifinals and play its way into the tournament.
• Kentucky will reach at least the SEC semifinals and be in contention for a top-four seed by Selection Sunday.
• Today's No. 1 seeds will be Selection Sunday's No. 1 seeds.
Shoutout to our homies at Northwestern and Florida Atlantic for basically being locks. Pour one out for my Syracuse Orange. And light a few candles on the cake for the best week in sports — it's just 48 hours away.
SEED LIST
1 | ALABAMA • KANSAS • HOUSTON • PURDUE
2 | UCLA • Baylor • Texas • Arizona
3 | Tennessee • Kansas State • MARQUETTE • GONZAGA
4 | Connecticut • Xavier • Indiana • SAN DIEGO STATE
5 | VIRGINIA • Saint Mary's • Texas Christian • Miami
6 | Creighton • Kentucky • Northwestern • Iowa State
7 | Duke • Texas A&M • Michigan State • Maryland
8 | Arkansas • Iowa • Illinois • Missouri
9 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC • Boise State • Providence • NC State
10 | Memphis • Southern California • Rutgers • Pittsburgh
11 | Auburn • Nevada • (West Virginia, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Wisconsin)
F4O | Utah State, North Carolina, Penn State, Michigan
N4O | New Mexico, Clemson (LOL), Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
12 | CHARLESTON • ORAL ROBERTS • BRADLEY • VCU
13 | LIBERTY • UTAH VALLEY • SOUTHERN MISS • TOLEDO
14 | YALE • IONA • FURMAN • UC IRVINE
15 | VERMONT • COLGATE • YOUNGSTOWN STATE • UNC ASHEVILLE
16 | EASTERN WASHINGTON • GRAMBLING STATE • (TEXAS A&M-CC, HOWARD, TENNESSEE TECH, FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON)
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